North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is highly likely to visit China soon, South Korea’s presidential office said Wednesday, a move that could signal his country’s return to nuclear disarmament talks.
“There is a high level of possibility that Kim Jong-Il will pay a visit to China. We are closely monitoring the situation,” presidential spokeswoman Kim Eun-Hye told a briefing, declining to elaborate.
Yonhap news agency quoted diplomatic sources as saying Kim might leave as early as Thursday or Friday.
It quoted a senior Seoul official as saying there are “indications” of an impending visit. The official cited unusual activity near the Chinese border city of Dandong and in Beijing, but gave no details.
Kim previously travelled by train to China in 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006. He reportedly dislikes flying.
Border guards and staff at the rail station, a travel agency and a hotel in Dandong told AFP they had no news of an impending Kim visit. The town is across the Yalu border river from the North Korean city of Sinuiju.
Analysts say any trip this year would be aimed at seeking badly needed economic aid from China, and the North in return may feel bound to return to the six-nation nuclear dialogue which Beijing hosts.
The North angrily quit the talks in April last year and vowed to restart production of weapons-grade plutonium. It carried out its second atomic weapons test the following month.
Pyongyang says it will not return to the nuclear dialogue until United Nations sanctions are lifted, and until the United States makes a commitment to hold talks on a formal peace treaty.
The North’s economy is ailing and a bungled currency revaluation in November has aggravated already serious food shortages. China is its sole major ally and its most important source of food and energy.
“It is highly likely that North Korea will barter its return to the six-party talks for economic aid from China at a time when the North’s economy is in bad shape following the currency revaluation,” Professor Kim Yong-Hyun of Seoul’s Dongguk University told AFP.
Analysts say Kim, if the trip goes ahead, may also seek Beijing’s support for his attempt to install his youngest son Jong-Un as eventual successor.
The 68-year-old leader suffered a stroke in August 2008 and some reports say he also has kidney problems requiring dialysis.
“Having named his third son as successor, Kim would express hope that the Chinese leadership and his successor will maintain a good political relationship in the future,” said Cheong Seong-Chang from the Sejong Institute in Seoul.
The North’s leader would also urge China to speed up its promised economic aid and in return, would likely give a clearer pledge than previously to return to the six-party talks, Cheong said.
